PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:USA TODAY, Ipsos poll: 20% of Americans fear climate change could force them to move

An exclusive USA TODAY/Ipsos poll finds a gaping American divide over climate change.  

Polling data shows an almost an equal number of people believe two completely different things: About one-in-five people surveyed were so concerned they think global warming will make it more difficult to live in their area. About the same number said they either don't know if climate change is PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerhappening or don’t believe in it at all.  

The poll even found links between how Americans perceive the weather and their views on climate change, with people who don’t believe in climate change often less likely to report an uptick in extreme weather. 

The polarized divide over climate change is well-documented, but the latest data sheds new light on Americans’ experiences with extreme weather, how experiencing extreme weather affects Americans’ view of climate change and the nation’s largely pessimistic predictions about the changing climate. 

After a summer filled with wildfires, smoke, hurricanes and heat waves, a large number of Americans increasingly worry that extreme weather events will be more frequent in the future and a significant number say climate change is negatively affecting their everyday lives. 

Almost half the nation says they've faced extreme weather in the month before the poll was conducted in July. Among those, rates of concern about climate change are sky-high compared to those who haven't.  

The numbers tell the tale. At times it's as if people were living in different countries, or even different realities. 

• Democrats are much more likely to say they’ve experienced extreme weather events recently compared with Republicans, 57% to 44%. 
• Of the 49% of people who said they’d faced extreme weather in the past month, 76% were either very or somewhat concerned about climate change.  
• Among people who didn't experience a recent extreme weather event, only 24% said they were very concerned. 
• A full 68% said extreme weather events will become more frequent in the near future. And 39% said climate change was negatively affecting their everyday life. 
• Close to two-thirds were pessimistic about the chance of slowing or reversing the effects of global warming – in part because they think Americans aren't willing to change their behavior.

Here's where Americans worry the most

Whether people think they’ll be able to stay where they are varies greatly by region. 

• In the West, which has experienced wildfire, drought and torrential rains in the past year, 30% said they thought it would be difficult to continue living in their area.  
• In the Midwest, which has experienced fewer extreme weather events, the number was 13%. 
• Nationally, the same partisan divide is in evidence. Twenty-three percent of those polled said they either strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement that it will get more difficult to stay in the area where they currently live due to climate change. 
• For Republicans, the number was 13%. For Democrats, it was 31%.  

A sharp political divide – even on the weather

The poll found extreme differences around beliefs about climate change depending on a person’s political leanings, even down to how they experience the weather. 

Polling data found people who believe climate change is being caused by humans reported an increased rate of experiencing an uptick in extreme heat, tornados, hurricanes and other extreme weather over the past ten years. That’s in comparison to those who believe climate change is happening due to natural causes or don’t believe in it at all — they generally reported less of an increase in such extreme weather. 

Overall, Americans see climate change as a serious problem and something humans are causing, with just over half saying climate change is mostly caused by human activity. But while there's overall consensus, it's masking a very deep political divide. 

“It’s almost as if people live in two different places,” said Ipsos senior data journalist Sarah Feldman. 

• Only 28% of Republicans believe climate change is mostly caused by human activity. 
• For Democrats, that number is 82% and for Independents, it's 56%. 
• 11% of Republicans said climate change was not really happening, as did 4% of Independents.  
• No Democrats surveyed agreed with that statement.
• 41% of Democrats said they were significantly more concerned about the effects of climate change now than they were a few years ago. 
• For Independents, it was 20%, for Republicans 9%. 

A pessimistic view of the future

When they think about climate change, Americans generally aren’t hopeful about the future. 

Close to two-thirds were pessimistic about the chance of slowing or reversing the effects of global warming – in part because they think Americans aren’t willing to change their behaviors. 

• Just 34% of people agreed or strongly agreed that progress to slow or reverse climate change was being made. 
• But more than 60% of those polled said while humans could slow or reverse things, their fellow Americans weren't willing to change their behavior to accomplish it. 

On a positive note, some Americans did say they were willing to make changes. About one-third of those surveyed said in the next year they’d be willing to do things like walking or biking to close locations, paying $100 more in taxes to reduce pollution, or installing solar panels to help slow global warming. 

The USA TODAY/Ipsos study was conducted in July 2023 among a nationally representative sample of 1,024 adult Americans on the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 

Elizabeth Weise covers climate change for USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected]